Macro Flash

Daily catalysts and market outlook in one view

Updated daily before the NY session to keep your bias aligned with the macro tape.

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What is inside

All key events for the day, mapped to FX impact and paired with the current market outlook.

Use this page as your pre-session briefing and align execution to the highest impact themes.

US March CPI released today shows inflation at highest since May 2024 (~3.3% YoY) as Iran war energy shock dominates; markets on edge as fragile US-Iran ceasefire shows signs of strain.

Risk Environment

Global risk tone and liquidity conditions shaping the session.

Global Risk Tone

Neutral

Liquidity Regime

Normal
Confidence: 75%

Today's Key Events

All scheduled and unscheduled catalysts from the daily macro update.

🚨 BREAKING
US-Iran ceasefire shows strain — Iran reports three provisions breached; SNB Chair Schlegel confirms heightened FX intervention readiness to counter CHF appreciation; Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed despite ceasefire — major upside risk to oil prices and inflation
🔴 HIGH
US CPI (March) (13:30 UTC) — consensus 3.3% YoY / +0.8-0.9% MoM; hot print reinforces Fed on hold and boosts USD; miss would weaken USD broadly across G10
🟡 MEDIUM
Canada Employment Change (March) (13:30 UTC) — consensus +14.5k; weak print would weigh on CAD, confirming BoC dovish case
🟡 MEDIUM
US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April Prelim) (15:00 UTC) — consensus 52.1 vs previous 54.1; declining expectations flag stagflation concerns
🟢 LOW
US Factory Orders (February) (15:00 UTC) — consensus +1.0% MoM vs -3.6% prior; positive reading would modestly support USD
🟢 LOW
RBNZ Governor Breman press conference follow-up remarks on inflation outlook — any signal of hawkish pivot would boost NZD

Market Snapshot

Cross-asset view of key markets shaping FX flows.

US Equities

S&P 500 6,824 | +0.62% (Thu close) | 7th consecutive gain — Extending

Asian Markets

Nikkei 225 ~37,800 | -0.3% | Caution; SENSEX +900pts | +3.8% | Recovery; ASX 200 flat | Ceasefire-driven commodity stability

Bonds

US 10Y 4.29% | US 2Y 3.66% | Flat — Yield curve stable; FOMC minutes release keeping 10Y anchored

Commodities

WTI $97.87/bbl (+3.1%) | Brent $95.92/bbl (+1.1%) | Rebounding as Hormuz controls persist despite ceasefire

US Dollar Index

DXY 98.87 | +0.04% | Firm — Supported by sticky inflation narrative ahead of CPI

Gold (XAU/USD)

XAU/USD $4,757 | -$9 session | -0.19% | Key level to watch: $4,700 support / $4,856 resistance

Key Themes

Dominant market drivers affecting currency pairs today.

US-Iran Ceasefire Fragility Dominates Risk NEUTRAL
Fragile two-week ceasefire keeps energy markets volatile; JPY and CHF benefit as safe havens while AUD and NZD face binary risk-on/risk-off swings.
JPY CHF AUD NZD
RBA Hiking Cycle Makes AUD Dominant Carry BULLISH
With two rate hikes in 2026 and a third expected in May, AUD benefits from the widest yield differential in G10 versus low-yielding CHF, JPY, and CAD.
AUD NZD
US CPI March Data Released Today BULLISH
Consensus at ~3.3% YoY headline driven by energy shock; a hot print reinforces Fed-on-hold narrative and supports USD; a miss could weaken USD broadly.
USD CAD
Energy Shock Inflation Stagflation Risk in Europe and UK BEARISH
ECB and BoE both held rates in March with hawkish tone shifts; energy-driven inflation erodes real growth in both economies, capping EUR and GBP upside despite tighter policy signals.
EUR GBP
Canada Labour Market Deteriorating BEARISH
Canadian unemployment at 6.7% and exports down 4% YoY keeps BoC on hold while inflation risks build from energy; CAD underperforms G10 peers as a result.
CAD
BoJ Gradual Tightening Path Intact BULLISH
BoJ maintained 0.75% policy rate with hawkish 8-1 vote; Shunto wage negotiations at 5.1% support eventual further hikes, providing moderate structural support for JPY.
JPY