Macro Flash

Daily catalysts and market outlook in one view

Updated daily before the NY session to keep your bias aligned with the macro tape.

What is inside

All key events for the day, mapped to FX impact and paired with the current market outlook.

Use this page as your pre-session briefing and align execution to the highest impact themes.

Hot core August CPI and a nearly 86% priced Fed hike collide with a US-Iran-driven oil spike and multiyear-high bond yields, keeping global FX markets in a broad risk-off, dollar-mixed tone into next week's FOMC.

Risk Environment

Global risk tone and liquidity conditions shaping the session.

Global Risk Tone

Risk-Off

Liquidity Regime

Normal
Confidence: 75%

Today's Key Events

All scheduled and unscheduled catalysts from the daily macro update.

🚨 BREAKING
Escalating US-Iran conflict - Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities and reported US strikes on Iranian tankers keep oil near multi-month highs and safe-haven flows active
🔴 HIGH
US August CPI released (08:30 ET / 12:30 UTC) - headline 0.4% m/m / 3.4% y/y in line, core 0.3% m/m hotter than forecast / 2.4% y/y in line - final print before the 15-16 Sept FOMC decision
🟡 MEDIUM
University of Michigan preliminary September consumer sentiment and inflation expectations due later today
🟢 LOW
Ongoing pre-FOMC (15-16 Sept) and pre-BoJ/BoE (17-18 Sept / 17 Sept) positioning flows across G8 desks

Market Snapshot

Cross-asset view of key markets shaping FX flows.

US Equities

S&P 500 7,587.06 | -0.65% | Selling

Asian Markets

Nikkei 225 63,844 | -2.19% | Selling on oil/yield spillover

Bonds

10Y 4.94% | 2Y ~4.39% | Yields near multiyear highs

Commodities

WTI $99.23 | Brent $103.78 | Pulling back after a double-digit weekly surge on US-Iran conflict

US Dollar Index

DXY 99.05 | -0.03% | Consolidating ahead of CPI reaction

Gold (XAU/USD)

XAU/USD $4,412.20 | -$48.50 | -1.09% | Watching $4,300 support / $4,450 resistance

Key Themes

Dominant market drivers affecting currency pairs today.

August core CPI runs hot into FOMC blackout end BULLISH
Core CPI beating forecast lifts Fed hike odds to ~86%, supportive for USD carry but also pressuring risk assets broadly
USD
US-Iran conflict keeps oil elevated BULLISH
Brent and WTI remain well above $95-100/bbl despite Friday's pullback, a tailwind for CAD via terms of trade and a headwind for JPY/CHF safe-haven positioning versus energy-driven inflation risk
CAD NZD
ECB delivers final hike of its short cycle BULLISH
The 10 Sept 25bp hike to a 2.50% deposit rate keeps EUR well supported near-term even as some economists see the hiking cycle ending
EUR
BoJ hawkish drumbeat ahead of 17-18 Sept meeting BULLISH
Ueda and board member Masu's hawkish remarks, plus JGB yields above 3%, keep a September hike near-fully priced, supporting JPY
JPY
Asia-Pacific risk-off weighs on the Aussie and Kiwi BEARISH
Nikkei down over 2% and broad regional equity weakness on rising yields and oil prices pressure the risk-sensitive AUD and NZD despite hawkish central bank tones
AUD NZD
Multiyear-high global bond yields pressure risk assets NEUTRAL
US 10Y near 4.94-4.97%, UK Gilts and Bunds also elevated, weighing on equities broadly and reinforcing a defensive, dollar-and-yen-supportive tone
USD JPY