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Public view shows each currency's current central bank tone and directional policy bias.
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| Currency | Central Bank | Tone | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Federal Reserve (FOMC) | Hawkish | August CPI landed in line with consensus on 11 Sept (headline +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y) but core CPI ran hot at +0.3% m/m (0.1pt above forecast), 2.4% y/y in line. This was the final inflation print before the 15-16 Sept FOMC meeting and reinforced, rather than dispelled, the hike case following Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole keynote (28 Aug) and the blowout August payrolls report (4 Sept, +162k vs +53k consensus). Governor Waller had said his vote hinged on this release; Governor Barr has said the Fed should be prepared to hike if inflation fails to ease. CME FedWatch-implied hike odds jumped to roughly 85.6% after the CPI print, up sharply from about 55-70% earlier in the week. |
| JPY | Bank of Japan (BoJ) | Hawkish | Held the policy rate at 1.00% on 31 July 2026 as universally expected following June's hike to a 30-year high. Governor Kazuo Ueda hardened his hawkish signaling at the G20 finance ministers meeting in Asheville (1-3 Sept), confirming the BoJ will hold a thorough debate on a possible hike at the 17-18 September meeting. Board member Kazuyuki Masu reinforced this on 11 Sept, indicating policymakers will continue tightening and gradually reduce monetary support as underlying inflation approaches the 2% target. |
| EUR | European Central Bank (ECB) | Hawkish | The Governing Council raised all three key ECB interest rates by 25bp on 10 September 2026 as widely expected, lifting the deposit facility to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90% (effective 16 Sept), citing continued Middle East-driven inflation pressure. Updated Eurosystem staff projections see headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028, revised up from March on a higher energy-price path. The Council kept forward guidance data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting with no pre-commitment, and several economists now see this as the final hike of a short two-step campaign. |
| NZD | Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) | Hawkish | Hiked the OCR 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September 2026 in a unanimous decision (a firming from July's narrow 3-3 split hike), with Governor Anna Breman noting further hikes are likely though timing remains highly uncertain. The move followed headline inflation rising to 4.1% YoY in the June quarter, driven largely by fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict. |
| GBP | Bank of England (MPC) | Hawkish | Held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting on 30 July 2026, with the hawkish dissent widening to 6-3 (Greene, Mann, Pill voting for an immediate hike to 4.00%), the largest hawkish minority of Bailey's tenure. In Treasury Committee oral evidence on 8 September 2026, Bailey told MPs the inflation outlook is now skewed to the upside, driven primarily by energy prices and uncertainty over how far that cost feeds through into broader inflation - a notable hardening versus his 28 Aug remarks downplaying second-round effects. |
| AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) | Hawkish | Held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026 for a second straight meeting in a unanimous decision, but shifted its forward guidance meaningfully more hawkish, dropping its prior 'balanced' risk framing and flagging it will hike further if upside inflation risks materialise, with inflation not expected back at target midpoint until late 2027/early 2028. |
| CAD | Bank of Canada (BoC) | Neutral | Held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive decision on 2 September 2026 (Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20%), citing continuing Middle East conflict keeping energy prices high and the breakdown of Canada-US trade talks, with new US tariffs and Canadian counter-measures both announced. The Bank pointed to a stronger-than-expected economy (Q2 GDP grew 3.3% annualized) as a reason for the hold, but explicitly warned that persistent tariff and oil-price pressures raise the risk that inflation moves higher rather than settling near the 2% target. |
| CHF | Swiss National Bank (SNB) | Neutral | Rate held at the zero bound with elevated FX-intervention readiness to counter safe-haven franc appreciation. |