What is inside
Public view shows each currency's current central bank tone and directional policy bias.
Members get deeper intelligence layers including score-weighted ranking, regime change signals, and cross-market context.
| Currency | Central Bank | Tone | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP | Bank of England (MPC) | Hawkish | Held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026 for a sixth straight meeting by a 6-3 vote (Greene, Mann and Pill voting for an immediate 25bp hike). The newest official communication is MPC member Megan Greene's 20 October speech at the LSE (Reuters, BoE): the risk of broader inflation from the Iran-war energy shock is greater than the BoE expects, she reiterated that rates should go up, argued the MPC should 'proactively lean against the risk of second-round effects', said wage growth is running higher than official data suggest, and judged the policy stance not obviously meaningfully restrictive. This reinforces Pill (8 Oct) and Mann (6 Oct) and sits alongside Governor Bailey's more measured 16 October Bangkok remarks ('too early' to judge second-round effects). Markets treat a 25bp hike to 4.00% on 5 November as almost fully priced. Tone stays Hawkish at score 7: Greene is an established hike voter so the committee shift is limited, while the hot September CPI is data rather than communication. |
| JPY | Bank of Japan (BoJ) | Hawkish | Raised the uncollateralized overnight call rate by 25bp to 1.25% on 18 September 2026, the highest since 1995, by a 7-2 vote (Asada and Sato dissenting). The newest official communication is Deputy Governor Himino's 21 October testimony to parliament (Reuters): underlying inflation is 'quite close' to the 2% target and will likely converge to target-consistent levels as medium- and long-term inflation expectations rise, financial conditions remain accommodative even after September's hike (low real borrowing costs, strong bank lending), brisk AI demand is adding upward price pressure, and delaying the necessary adjustment could let inflation risks materialise, so rates need to keep rising. This reinforces Governor Ueda's 19 October parliamentary testimony and Deputy Governor Uchida's 16 October message. Tone stays Hawkish at score 7: the 29-30 October meeting is expected to hold (Kyodo; Reuters poll shows 54 of 78 economists expect 1.50% this quarter) with December the favoured window. |
| AUD | Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) | Hawkish | The RBA Monetary Policy Board unanimously raised the cash rate target by 25bp to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, the fourth hike of 2026 and the highest level since 2011. The newest official communication is Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's 21 October fireside chat at Citi's Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney (RBA, ABC): the inflation outlook is 'materially worse' than the RBA forecast, high inflation is becoming entrenched, and another hike as soon as 3 November is in play; he said the economy needs to ease (with unemployment possibly rising towards 5%) and that short-term pain is needed to stop inflation expectations locking in. This is firmer than Assistant Governor Kent's 19 October balanced fireside chat (restrictive-enough debate, softening household demand) and follows the 13 October minutes showing a strong case for hiking. UBS and Goldman Sachs now forecast a November hike (Goldman: 4.85%), although UBS flags the risk of a split vote with external members. Tone stays Hawkish and intensity is lifted from 6 to 7. |
| NZD | Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) | Hawkish | Hiked the OCR 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September 2026 (second straight hike). The newest official communication is RBNZ's Conway on 15 October, who said the 28 October decision is 'completely open' and that the OCR is more likely to rise than fall, reinforcing the 22 September Breman warning that sustained oil gains would lift inflation above forecasts. This is a firmer message than Silk's 4 September December-hold guidance. Tone stays Hawkish at score 6 given rising unemployment as an offset. |
| USD | Federal Reserve (FOMC) | Hawkish | The FOMC unanimously (12-0) raised the target range 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September 2026, its first hike since July 2023. The newest official communication is Chair Warsh's conversation at the IMF meetings on 16 October, following the hot September CPI/PPI prints; this comes after Williams (13 Oct: one more hike appropriate this year, none needed in 2027), Waller (8 Oct: more hikes needed, not necessarily consecutive) and the 7 October minutes (most of 19 participants saw another increase likely by year-end). Tone stays Hawkish, but intensity is trimmed to 5 because officials are signalling a gradual, data-dependent path (October hold with a December hike remains the base case) rather than an accelerated pace. |
| EUR | European Central Bank (ECB) | Hawkish | The Governing Council raised all three key rates by 25bp on 10 September 2026 (deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90%). The newest official communications are Governing Council member Kazaks's Econostream interview published on 21 October (some more policy tightening might be necessary if inflation stays well above target, but the recent rise in bond yields is already adding market tightening that will slow growth and curb inflation; no conditions for excessive wage demands; monetary policy cannot cure the French situation) and Bank of Finland Governor Rehn's 20 October monetary policy speech (activity has surprised on the upside but growth momentum remains subdued, the labour market is no longer tight, wage growth is moderate and there is as yet little evidence of second-round effects from energy). They follow Lagarde's 17 October IMFC statement and Bangkok remarks (financing conditions have tightened as long-term rates rose notably; the bond selloff will help curb inflation) and Nagel's 'maybe we have to do more'. October is expected to be a hold, with the 17 December meeting (new projections) the favoured window for a third 2026 hike that would lift the deposit rate to 2.75%. Tone stays Hawkish but intensity is trimmed from 3 to 2: the newest remarks, including from hawk-wing Kazaks who is now explicitly conditional and stresses market-driven tightening, emphasise caution and the absence of second-round effects. |
| CAD | Bank of Canada (BoC) | Neutral | Held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive decision on 2 September 2026. The newest official communication is Governor Macklem's 17 October conference call from Bangkok (Reuters): the Bank expects to raise its inflation forecast significantly on 28 October because of persistently high oil and petroleum-product prices, the risk that inflation broadens and becomes more persistent has gone up, and the Bank is prepared to adjust policy as needed; he also framed the open question as whether inflation returns to 2% on its own or rates must rise to nudge it. Markets price no change on 28 October or in December but about 100bp of hikes over 2027. A hawkish-leaning message, but rising unemployment and US tariff risks keep the stance Neutral at the top of the band, score 2. |
| CHF | Swiss National Bank (SNB) | Neutral | The SNB left its policy rate unchanged at 0% on 24 September 2026, as universally expected, while slightly raising its conditional inflation forecast and dialling down its earlier heightened readiness to intervene against rapid franc appreciation. The newest official communication is the SNB's summary of the discussion at the 22-23 September monetary policy assessment, published on 22 October: since June, markets have been driven by renewed Middle East tensions and tighter monetary policy abroad; because the franc's depreciation outweighed the rise in interest rates, monetary conditions had eased overall since June; unemployment rose slightly in Q2 although employment also increased; medium-term inflationary pressure is only slightly higher than in June; and the Governing Board deemed current monetary conditions appropriate to ensure price stability over the medium term. This is consistent with Governing Board member Tschudin's 15 October presentation (conditional inflation forecast 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028, inside the 0-2% price-stability range; widening interest-rate differentials have contributed to CHF depreciation), Vice Chairman Martin's 8 October remarks (no need to change policy for now) and Chairman Schlegel's 26 September SRF interview, so the tone stays Neutral at score 0. |