Strategy Tools

Probability of Ruin Calculator

Understand the statistical likelihood that your trading account will be wiped out. Position sizing matters more than edge.

Ruin Probability
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Your Edge
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Safe Risk Limit
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EV Per Trade
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How this probability of ruin calculator works

This forex risk management tool runs Monte Carlo simulations to estimate how often an account reaches your ruin threshold under your current strategy assumptions. Instead of guessing, you can test how win rate, reward-to-risk ratio, and position sizing interact over hundreds or thousands of trades.

1. Enter your edge

Set realistic win rate and reward-to-risk values based on your journal or backtests, then define your starting balance and ruin threshold.

2. Set your risk

Choose risk per trade and simulation count. Higher simulation counts improve confidence in the account survival and ruin estimates.

3. Compare scenarios

Use the sensitivity output to see the safest risk band. Small sizing changes can dramatically reduce long-run blow-up probability.

Traders who track planned risk versus actual outcomes usually improve consistency faster. QuantCore Pro helps connect your calculator assumptions to live execution and ongoing performance analytics.

⚙️ Calculator Inputs

Initial account size
% of trades that are winners
55%
Avg reward-to-risk (e.g., 1.5)
1.5:1
% of account risked per trade
2%
% of starting balance = ruin
Monte Carlo iterations
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The Most Important Lesson in Trading
Your edge doesn't protect you. Your position sizing does. A trader with a 55% win rate and 1.5 R:R might have only a 2-3% ruin probability at 1% risk per trade — but that same strategy has a 50%+ ruin probability at 5% risk.
⚠️ High Risk Alert

Risk Sensitivity Analysis

How ruin probability changes with different risk levels (holding W/L, R:R constant)