Current central bank tone and policy bias across major currencies, organized for fast macro context.
Use this briefing before session open to align your directional framework with institutional positioning.
Latest update: June 11, 2026
European Central Bank (ECB)
Bias: ECB widely expected to hike deposit rate 25bp to 2.25% at its June 11 meeting — first hike since Sept 2023 — driven by Iran-war energy shock pushing euro-area inflation to 3%+.
Polymarket 99.6% probability of 25bp hike to 2.25% at today's meeting. Lagarde press conference at 12:45 GMT. April hold featured hike discussion 'at length'. Market prices 3 hikes total in 2026. Updated staff projections expected to show higher inflation, weaker growth.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Bias: RBA hiked to 4.35% in May 2026. Economists divided on June meeting: some see another hike given persistent inflation, others expect pause to assess impact of prior tightening.
May 2026 increase brought cash rate to 4.35%. Inflation still above target. Households adjusting to higher borrowing costs. Global energy shock creating dual pressure on RBA: higher CPI but weaker global demand outlook. June meeting outcome uncertain.
Federal Reserve (FOMC)
Bias: On hold at 3.50%-3.75%; majority of officials signal hike likely if Iran-war inflation persists. Only one cut projected for 2026, down from four.
April FOMC: 4-dissent vote, most hawkish since 1992. May CPI 4.2% YoY (highest since Apr 2023). June meeting June 16-17. Markets fully price one 25bp hike in Dec 2026. CPI released June 10 in-line at +4.2% YoY; core +2.9%; weekly jobless claims due today June 11.
Bank of Canada (BoC)
Bias: Paused cutting cycle; rate decision June 10. Canada trade surplus widened to C$2.72bn in April. Oil price volatility from Hormuz crisis creates two-sided risk for BoC: inflation from energy vs. demand shock.
BoC was first to move in central bank super-week (June 10 decision). Canada benefits from elevated oil prices on exports but also faces imported inflation. Rate currently ~3.00% after 2025 cuts. Positioning neutral.
Bank of England (MPC)
Bias: Holding at 3.75% through June 18 meeting. MPC voted 8-1 to hold in April; one dissenter sought 4%. Balancing above-target inflation (3.3%) against growth risks from energy shock.
Next decision June 18. JP Morgan predicts one hike this year. ING doubts June hike but flags July if Hormuz stays closed 10 more weeks. Oxford Economics: hold for rest of 2026. UK CPI 3.3%. Mortgage lenders cutting fixed rates but MPC warned of 'forceful' rises possible.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
Bias: RBNZ paused its cycle in mid-2026 amid global energy-shock uncertainty. NZ inflation tracking higher from energy pass-through but growth slowing.
RBNZ in wait-and-see mode. NZ economy small and open; highly sensitive to global commodity prices and AUD direction. Iran war energy shock imported via petrol and gas costs. Rate ~3.50% currently after 2025 cuts were followed by pause. Next OCR review late June.
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
Bias: Holding at 0% (zero rate) since March 2026. SNB signaling greater FX intervention readiness to prevent excessive CHF appreciation amid risk-off flows from Iran war.
SNB kept rate at 0% in March 2026. Inflation only 0.1% in Feb (forecast 0.5% for full year). Intervening to cap CHF strength. Next SNB meeting June 19. Switzerland GDP growth ~1% for 2026. Real rate deeply negative given zero nominal rate.
Bank of Japan (BoJ)
Bias: Holding at 0.75% amid Iran-war-driven stagflation risk. Split 6-3 vote to hold in April; three dissenters wanted 1.0%. Reuters poll: no hike at June 16-17 meeting; 52% see rates unchanged through year-end.
BOJ raised core inflation forecast to 2.8%, cut GDP growth forecast to 0.5%. Yen at ~159 vs USD. Reuters poll June 11: none of 60 economists expect hike at June 16-17 meeting. Next hike expected early 2027. JGB purchases being tapered 400bn JPY/quarter.
Highest-conviction directional ideas from the current macro matrix.