Central Bank policy and macro stance in one view

Bias: Raised cash rate twice in 2026 to 4.1%; inflation above target; further hike expected at May meeting; strong domestic demand and tight labour market support tightening

RBA hiked 25bp in February and March 2026 to 4.1%, 5-4 vote. Domestic inflation above target driven by strong consumer demand and tight labour market. Iran war adding energy cost pressure. CBA economists forecast another hike at May meeting. Strong residential property market.

Bias: On hold at 3.50-3.75%; March FOMC minutes signal some members open to rate hike if energy-driven inflation persists; dot plot projects one cut in 2026 but seven of 19 members see no cuts this year

March 17-18 FOMC held rates unanimously (one dissent for cut). FOMC minutes released April 9 show growing concern that Middle East conflict could require further hikes. March CPI expected ~3.3% YoY released today; core CPI at 3.1% YoY per most estimates. FOMC inflation forecast raised to 2.7% for 2026.

Bias: Held deposit rate at 2.0% in March; upside risks to inflation from energy shock; governing council has shifted tone more hawkish with markets pricing possible rate hikes later in 2026

ECB March 19 decision: rates on hold, deposit rate 2.0%, MRO 2.15%. Staff projections revised headline inflation to 2.6% in 2026 from 2.0%, GDP growth cut to 0.9% for 2026. Lagarde stated ECB 'well positioned and equipped' to deal with ongoing energy shock. Markets pricing up to 3 hikes.

Bias: Unanimously held at 3.75% in March; tone materially more hawkish than expected; markets now pricing rate hikes after energy shock; CPI seen rising to 3-3.5% near-term

MPC voted 9-0 to hold at 3.75%; all four members who voted for a cut in February reversed to hold. UK CPI 3.2% in January, BoE projects 3-3.5% over next two quarters. QT continuing at £70bn per year pace. April 30 is next MPC decision.

Bias: Held at 0.75% in March; gradual tightening bias intact; real rates remain significantly negative; next hike expected October 2026 or earlier if yen depreciates

BoJ March 19 hold passed 8-1; Takata dissented for hike to 1.0%. Governor Ueda flagged Middle East uncertainty but maintained tightening bias. Further rate hikes remain appropriate per Summary of Opinions. Next MPM April 27-28.

Bias: Held OCR at 2.25% on April 8; looking through temporary energy price spike; weak domestic demand and spare capacity moderating medium-term inflation; rate hike risk if second-round inflation effects emerge

RBNZ April 8 decision: OCR held at 2.25%, in line with expectations. Governor Breman said short-lived energy shock 'can and should be looked through'. However warned rates could rise if medium-term inflation expectations become unanchored. Headline CPI 3.1% above 1-3% target band. Non-tradeable inflation 3.5%.

Bias: Held at 0.00% in March; signaling heightened willingness to intervene in FX to prevent CHF appreciation; inflation barely above zero; rate change unlikely until 2027

SNB March 19: policy rate unchanged at 0.0%. CHF safe-haven flows from Middle East conflict creating upward pressure. SNB forecasts inflation 0.5% in 2026 and 2027. SNB explicit about using FX intervention as primary tool. Next assessment June 2026.

Bias: Held at 2.25% in March; balancing trade-war headwinds to growth against rising inflation from energy shock; signaling data-dependence with no preset path

BoC held overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18; CPI fell to 1.8% in February but energy shock expected to push it higher in coming months. Unemployment rose to 6.7% in February. GDP forecast subdued at ~1.1% in 2026. Next announcement April 29.