Central Bank policy and macro stance in one view

Bias: Surprise hike delivered by consensus as financial conditions eased; committee sees the OCR settling near 2.75-3.00% by year-end.

RBNZ MPC raised the OCR 25bps to 2.50% by consensus. This remains the most recent RBNZ communication; June/July inflation and PMI data released since confirm the hawkish trajectory (CPI YoY accelerated to 4.1%, Manufacturing PMI surged to 59.7).

Bias: Continuing gradual policy normalization; rate hiked to a 30-year high with explicit guidance toward further increases; next meeting July 30-31 not yet occurred.

BoJ raised the policy rate 25bps to 1.00% in a 7-1 vote, highest since 1995. Guidance signals continued hikes as underlying CPI nears the 2% target. Markets price ~93% odds of a hold at the Jul 30-31 meeting, which has not yet occurred. Near-term, the yen has weakened on a chip-stock-led global risk rally and carry-trade demand, but this does not change the BoJ's hawkish policy stance.

Bias: Held at 3.75% but hawkish dissent has doubled (7-2 vote, two members favoring a hike to 4.00%); services inflation remains sticky.

MPC voted 7-2 to hold Bank Rate; Pill and Greene dissented for a 25bp hike to 4.00%. A new UK government under PM Andy Burnham was formed in mid-July 2026, adding fiscal-policy uncertainty; John Healey was named finance minister on 20 July 2026, seen by markets as a signal of higher defense spending ahead. The next decision on 30 July 2026 has not yet occurred.

Bias: Hold with hawkish shift under new Chair Warsh; forward guidance language on easing bias removed; SEP dot plot raised, markets now roughly split on a September hike after oil-driven inflation prints tied to the Iran conflict.

FOMC voted 12-0 to hold the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at Warsh's first meeting as Chair. Statement dropped easing-bias language; SEP raised 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.6%. Officials remain in blackout ahead of the Jul 28-29, 2026 meeting (not yet occurred); markets price roughly 55-68% odds of a September hike, and CME data on Jul 23 put ~85.6% odds of a July hold, amid Iran-conflict-driven oil price increases.

Bias: Held for a sixth consecutive meeting; balancing energy-driven inflation risk from the Iran conflict against soft domestic growth, now complicated by fresh US tariffs on Canadian goods.

BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.50%). Growth showing tentative improvement but risks tied to the Middle East conflict and a new round of US tariffs (50% on a range of Canadian goods, excluding energy/potash/fish/critical minerals, announced 20-21 July 2026 and set to take effect in 30 days under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930). This remains the most recent BoC communication; no newer rate decision has occurred.

Bias: Held after three hikes earlier in 2026; Board retains a tightening bias with a hike not ruled out at the July 30 meeting.

RBA left the cash rate at 4.35% after three 2026 hikes. Board statement retained a tightening bias given inflation above target and continued upside risk from the Middle East energy shock. The next decision on July 30, 2026 has not yet occurred.

Bias: Rate held at the zero bound with elevated FX-intervention readiness to counter safe-haven franc appreciation.

SNB left the policy rate unchanged at 0%, reaffirming FX-intervention readiness given renewed safe-haven demand amid the Iran conflict. Next quarterly assessment due September; no newer communication found.

Bias: Held all three key rates unchanged on 23 July 2026 as expected, pausing after June's first hike since 2023 to assess the intensity and duration of the renewed Middle East energy shock; Governing Council reaffirmed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no explicit forward guidance, but markets now price a ~93% probability of a 25bp hike to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting.

Governing Council held the deposit facility rate at 2.25% and main refinancing rate at 2.40%, unanimous decision. Lagarde noted some governors 'asked themselves' whether a further hike was warranted at this meeting. Statement said the energy-price outlook remains close to the June staff-projection baseline but well above pre-conflict levels, with uncertainty high and the full inflationary impact of the shock still to play out. Renewed Houthi Red Sea attacks and Brent's push above $100/bbl this week have lifted September hike pricing to ~93% from ~70-88% just before the meeting.