Central Bank policy and macro stance in one view

Bias: BoJ widely expected to hike to 1.0% at June 16 meeting as real rates remain deeply negative and inflation persistence above 2% target justifies normalization.

Bloomberg sources report BoJ officials set to discuss raising rate to 1.0% at June 16 meeting. Board member Takata has been dissenting for hikes since January. BoJ held at 0.75% at March meeting citing Middle East uncertainty but reiterated tightening path. Oxford Economics notes further yen weakening gives BoJ a strong case for June hike. Japan 10Y yield falling ahead of BOJ meeting.

Bias: ECB delivered first rate hike since 2023 at June 2026 meeting (+25bp), bringing deposit rate to 2.25%, driven by energy-inflation shock from Iran conflict.

ECB hiked 25bp in June 2026, first increase since 2023. Inflation forecast revised up to 3.0% HICP for 2026. GDP growth forecast cut to 0.8% for 2026. ECB notes Middle East war amplifying inflationary pressures via energy and second-round effects. Lagarde tone explicitly anti-inflation.

Bias: RBA hiked 25bp to 4.35% at May 2026 meeting (third consecutive hike); fully unwound 2025 easing cycle; June 16 meeting expected to hold but August hike possible.

RBA raised cash rate to 4.35% at May 2026 meeting in 8-1 vote. Third straight hike this year. Board noted 'financial conditions not sufficiently restrictive'. Underlying inflation projected above 3% until late 2027. Westpac forecasting further hikes in June and August. Canstar notes June 16 meeting is next decision day.

Bias: SNB holding at 0%; signaling greater willingness to use FX intervention to prevent excessive CHF appreciation; not expected to hike until H2 2027.

SNB kept at 0% in March 2026 with discount on excess reserves. Inflation at 0.1% in February, expected to reach 0.5% for 2026. SNB signaling more reliance on FX intervention rather than rate changes. Safe-haven CHF appreciation pressure ongoing. No hike seen until second half of 2027.

Bias: BoC holding overnight rate at 2.25%; few signs energy costs spilling into broader inflation; waiting on data given Iran conflict uncertainty.

BoC held at 2.25% at June meeting citing limited broader inflation spillover despite higher energy costs. Core inflation still within 1-3% target band. Governing Council signaled policy could adjust in either direction. Canada trade surplus widened to C$2.72B in April.

Bias: Fed holding rates at 3.50-3.75% amid surging inflation driven by Iran conflict energy shock; hike bias intensifying for H2 2026.

April 29 FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75%. June 16-17 meeting expected to hold but with possible bias shift toward tightening. CPI at 4.2% YoY (May 2026) is highest since April 2023. Markets now price a December hike. New Chair Kevin Warsh under pressure. Goldman Sachs notes FX markets narrowly focused on Iran conflict headline risk.

Bias: BoE holding at 3.75% throughout 2026 with one dissenter voting for 25bp hike; September hike now fully priced by markets.

April 29 MPC voted 8-1 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%. One member voted for immediate +25bp. CPI expected ~3% in Q2 2026. BoE scrapped its central forecast framework. June 18 meeting expected to hold. Household inflation expectations rising notably. Markets pricing >60% chance of September hike.

Bias: RBNZ at 2.25% with rate hike expected at early July meeting as inflation risks push above 1-3% target band despite decade-high unemployment.

RBNZ does not meet until early July; markets see a hike from 2.25% as likely. Inflation expected to push above 1-3% target band. Unemployment at decade high creating conflicting signals. RBNZ in a tough spot balancing growth/inflation tradeoff.